Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, along with his team, has released estimates regarding the likelihood of several altcoin-based ETFs gaining regulatory approval in the U.S. Among these, XRP faces the lowest odds, with only a 65% chance of securing approval this year. This places it behind other prominent altcoins that have already seen spot ETF proposals submitted.
The primary obstacle for XRP lies in its regulatory standing. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not currently classify XRP as a commodity, which significantly reduces its chances of approval. In contrast, Solana (SOL), despite also being labeled as an unregistered security in recent SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, has a slightly higher approval probability of 70%. This is partly due to the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal.
Litecoin (LTC), on the other hand, enjoys the highest approval odds at 90%. Bloomberg analysts suggest that the SEC likely views LTC as a commodity, and its lack of regulatory complications makes it a strong candidate for ETF approval. Interestingly, even Dogecoin (DOGE) has a better chance than XRP and SOL, according to the analysis.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, paints a more optimistic picture for XRP. Users on the platform have assigned an 81% probability to the approval of an XRP ETF this year, reflecting a more bullish sentiment compared to Bloomberg’s assessment.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has previously expressed confidence in the inevitability of an XRP-based ETF, citing the growing interest in cryptocurrency investment products. However, the regulatory hurdles remain a significant challenge. As the SEC continues to scrutinize the classification of various digital assets, the path to approval for altcoin ETFs remains uncertain, with XRP facing an uphill battle compared to its peers.
